Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 






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03/11/2020 Actual Forrige Konsensus Prognose
03:30 AM
AU
Rba Rentebeslutning 0.1% 0.25% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 AM
TR
Inflation (Årlig) OCT 11.89% 11.75% 11.9% 11.5%
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer-tale
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom mødeprotokol
12:00 PM
MX
Erhverv Confidence OCT 41.5 40.7 ® 41
03:00 PM
US
Factory Orders (Månedlig) SEP 1.1% 0.6% ® 1% 0.6%
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank frieri tale
06:00 PM
BR
Handelsbalance OCT $5.5B $6.2B $6.1B $6B
06:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer-tale
09:30 PM
US
API for råolieolieændring OCT/30 -8.01M 4.577M 1.964M
10:00 PM
AU
Markit - Tjenester - Pmi - Final OCT 53.7 50.8 53.8
11:50 PM
JP
Boj Pengepolitiske Mødereferater
US
Præsidentvalg
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
04/11/2020 Actual Forrige Konsensus Prognose
12:30 AM
AU
Detailudsalg (månedligt) Final SEP -1.1% -4% -1.5% -1.5%
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin - Services - Smv'Er OCT 56.8 54.8 54
08:00 AM
ES
Arbejdsløshed Change OCT 49.6K -26.3K 65K
08:15 AM
ES
Markit-Services-Pmi OCT 41.4 42.4 40 40.6
08:45 AM
IT
HS - Markit - Tjenester - SMV'er OCT 46.7 48.8 47 46.6
08:50 AM
FR
Markit - Tjenester - Pmi - Final OCT 46.5 47.5 46.5 46.5
08:55 AM
DE
Markit - Tjenester - Pmi - Final OCT 49.5 50.6 48.9 48.9
09:00 AM
EA
Markit - Tjenester - Pmi - Final OCT 46.9 48 46.2 46.2
09:30 AM
GB
Markit / CIPS UK Services PMI Final OCT 51.4 56.1 52.3 52.3
12:00 PM
BR
Industriel Produktion (Månedlig) SEP 2.6% 3.6% ® 2.2% 2.6%
01:15 PM
US
Adp-Beskæftigelse-Skift OCT 365K 753K ® 650K 590K
01:30 PM
CA
Handelsbalance SEP C$-3.25B C$-3.21B ® C$-2.6B C$ -2.6B
01:30 PM
US
Handelsbalance SEP $-63.9B $-67B ® $-63.8B $ -63.1B
02:45 PM
US
Markit - Composite - Pmi - Final OCT 56.3 54.3 55.5
02:45 PM
US
Markit - Tjenester - Pmi - Final OCT 56.9 54.6 56
03:00 PM
US
Ism - Ikke - Produktion - Forretning - Aktivitet OCT 61.2 63 62 60
03:00 PM
US
Ism Non-Manufacturing Beskæftigelse OCT 50.1 51.8 52
03:00 PM
US
Ism Nye Ordrer OCT 58.8 61.5 61
03:00 PM
US
Ism-Non-Manufacturing-Pmi OCT 56.6 57.8 57.5 57
03:00 PM
US
Ism Priser OCT 63.9 59 58
03:30 PM
US
Vvm Mineralolielagrene Ændre OCT/30 -7.998M 4.32M 0.89M
03:30 PM
US
VVM - Cushing - Rå - Olie - Aktier - Lave om OCT/30 0.936M -0.422M
03:30 PM
US
VVM-destillatlagerændring OCT/30 -1.585M -4.491M -2.023M
03:30 PM
US
Vvm Benzin Lagre Skift OCT/30 1.541M -0.892M -0.871M
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
05/11/2020 Actual Forrige Konsensus Prognose
12:00 AM
US
Bilsalg OCT 16.2M 16.3M
12:30 AM
AU
Handelsbalance SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ® A$2.1B
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun - Bank - Tjenester - SMV'er - Endelig OCT 47.7 46.9 46.6 46.6
04:00 AM
ID
Bnp-Vækst Qoq Q3 5.05% -4.19% 5.34% 5%
04:00 AM
ID
Bnp-Vækst (Annual) Q3 -3.49% -5.32% -3% -3.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Factory Orders (Månedlig) SEP 0.5% 4.9% ® 2% 1.5%
07:00 AM
GB
Boe Rentebeslutning 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
GB
BoE - MPC - Stemme - Skære 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
Boe Mpc Stem Hike 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Afstemning uændret 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
07:00 AM
GB
Boe Kvantitative Lempelser £875B £745B £825B £845B
07:00 AM
GB
Pengepolitisk rapport
07:00 AM
GB
Mpc Mødereferater
08:30 AM
DE
Byggeri - Pmi OCT 45.2 45.5 44.4
09:30 AM
GB
Byggeri - Pmi OCT 53.1 56.8 55 54.4
10:00 AM
EA
Detailhandel (Månedlig) SEP -2% 4.2% ® -1% -1.4%
10:00 AM
EA
Detailhandel (Annual) SEP 2.2% 4.4% ® 2.8% 2.5%
11:30 AM
ES
Forbrugertillid OCT 48.5 49.5 44.9
11:40 AM
EA
ECB Guindos tale
12:00 PM
MX
Forbrugertillid OCT 37.6 36.3 ® 36.1
12:00 PM
GB
Sunak Statement on COVID Support
01:00 PM
BR
Markit-Services-Pmi OCT 52.3 50.4 51
01:30 PM
US
Understøttelsesanmodninger OCT/31 751K 758K ® 732K 745K
01:30 PM
US
Arbejdsløse krav 4-ugers gennemsnit OCT/31 787K 791K ® 782K
01:30 PM
US
Nonfarm Produktivitet Qoq Prel Q3 4.9% 10.6% ® 5.6% 5%
01:30 PM
US
Enhedslønomkostninger Qoq Prel Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ® -11.5% -10%
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann-tale
07:00 PM
US
Fed Rentebeslutning 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 PM
US
Fed - Trykke - Konference
09:30 PM
AU
Ai - Gruppe - Tjenester - Indeks OCT 51.4 36.2 37
06/11/2020 Actual Forrige Konsensus Prognose
12:30 AM
AU
RBA-erklæring om pengepolitik
07:00 AM
DE
Industriel Produktion (Månedlig) SEP 1.6% 0.5% ® 2.7% 2.5%
07:45 AM
FR
Handelsbalance SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B €-6.32B €-6.7B
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax House Price Index (Månedlig) OCT 0.3% 1.5% ® 0.5% 0.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax - House - Pris - Indeks - (Årlig) OCT 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3%
09:00 AM
IT
Detailhandel (Månedlig) SEP -0.8% 8.2% -2.6%
12:00 PM
BR
Inflation (Årlig) OCT 3.92% 3.14% 3.9% 4%
01:30 PM
CA
Ændring I Beskæftigelsen OCT 83.6K 378.2K 100K 110K
01:30 PM
CA
Fuldtidsbeskæftigelse Ændr OCT 69.1K 334K 40K
01:30 PM
CA
Deltid Beskæftigelse Ændr OCT 14.5K 44.2K ® 70K
01:30 PM
CA
Erhvervsfrekvens OCT 65.2% 65% 65% 65.1%
01:30 PM
CA
Arbejdsløshed Rate OCT 8.9% 9% 8.8% 9%
01:30 PM
US
Ikke Beskæftigelsestal OCT 638K 672K ® 600K 510K
01:30 PM
US
Arbejdsløshed Rate OCT 6.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Gov Macklem tale
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Schembri Speech
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey Pmi Sa OCT 54.5 54.3 51.5 52
03:00 PM
US
Engros Varebeholdninger (Månedlig) SEP 0.4% 0.5% ® -0.1% -0.1%
04:00 PM
RU
Inflation (Årlig) OCT 4% 3.7% 4% 3.8%
07/11/2020 Actual Forrige Konsensus Prognose
03:00 AM
CN
Handelsbalance OCT $58.44B $37B $46B $42B
03:00 AM
CN
Eksport (Annual) OCT 11.4% 9.9% 9.3% 9%
03:00 AM
CN
Import (Annual) OCT 4.7% 13.2% 9.5% 10.5%
08/11/2020 Actual Forrige Konsensus Prognose
11:50 PM
JP
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